Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24a9df6bcf6be2151476e4a1baa7f014ef40f506b2d3d34087e205bb8bc93f2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,132$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 453.14$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 451.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 399.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 18c | 192.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 182.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 57c | 175.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 48c | 169.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 168.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 154.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 147.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 141.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 72c | 136.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 104.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 102$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 31c | 96.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 94.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 90.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 31c | 85.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 84.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 83.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 24c | 77.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 74c | 76.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 28c | 70.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 30c | 67.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 67.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 62.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 61.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 61.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 33c | 59.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 74c | 54.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 52.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 26c | 49.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 77c | 45.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 44.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 57c | 38.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 52c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 40c | 37.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 34.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 70c | 34.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…f80ebacked Yes | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 62c | 33.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 52c | 29.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 27.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 67c | 24.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd695…f470backed No | 53c | 22.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 22.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 53c | 21.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 71c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 18.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 62c | 18.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 17.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 16.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 15.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…9c0bbacked Yes | 72c | 13.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.