Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd411ef0cd6f79d2d08224cb1775824ec9b2b0477cac9a97cf0252967322883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 56c | 1,010$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.88 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 936.54$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 39c | 467.07$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.39 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 465.29$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 391.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 20c | 391.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 69c | 388.49$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.05 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 78c | 384.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 360.11$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 286.01$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 72c | 277.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 43c | 268.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 221.48$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 203.65$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 59c | 195$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 64c | 187.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 175$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 155.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 147.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 31c | 140.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 13c | 131.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed Yes | 78c | 125.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 38c | 119.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 51c | 115.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 79c | 96.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 44c | 95.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 94.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 94.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 89.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 84.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 83.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 75.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 26c | 71.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 71.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 40c | 70.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7a…59a2backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 58c | 65.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 35c | 58.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 34c | 56.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8d…9c0bbacked Yes | 65c | 54.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 52.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 53c | 44.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb93…d52abacked No | 74c | 41.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 48c | 35.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 35.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 36c | 35.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 52c | 34.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 51c | 33.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 74c | 33.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 33.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 72c | 32.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…6294backed No | 48c | 31.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 30.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 74c | 29.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 54c | 27.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 27.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 23.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 70c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.