Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d281f1d5b2339d514fbb263af38988def3ee9aa6882e17cd6a52b0798a62da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7761…f74bbacked Yes | 46c | 898.1$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 56c | 512.16$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 410.52$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 301.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 281.44$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 56c | 253.41$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 208.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 46c | 192$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 173.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 38c | 138.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 137$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 57c | 130.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 130.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 124.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 46c | 122.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 122.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 47c | 116.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…4a4bbacked Yes | 44c | 112.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 101.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 44c | 88.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 86.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 70c | 83.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 80.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 70.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 78c | 64.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 60.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 38c | 54.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 41c | 48.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 36c | 47.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 39.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 44c | 39.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 39.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 37.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 37.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 44c | 34.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 33.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 61c | 31.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 30.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe054…15f7backed Yes | 45c | 29.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 27.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 45c | 26.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 25.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 43c | 25.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 56c | 24.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 56c | 24.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 42c | 24.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…7265backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc591…5088backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…05b2backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 15.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.