Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9799b5044930ef360ecb78f6edc66dd8057a91cbc025ff9f2d8dd92f2401a4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 1,752$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.34 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 1,352$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 30c | 779.69$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.78 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 443.46$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 72c | 373.88$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.99 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 66c | 373.57$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.47 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 329.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 261$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.92 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 229$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.88 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 165.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 164.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.73 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 24c | 162.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.01 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 135.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 124.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 113.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 42c | 111.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 88.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 76.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 74.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 74.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 26c | 72.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 51c | 65.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 62.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 73c | 62.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 61.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 60.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 26c | 58.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 24c | 56.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 27c | 55.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 54.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 72c | 53.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 22c | 51.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 35c | 51.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 50.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 50.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 56c | 47.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 47.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 43.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 29c | 41.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 32c | 37.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 31c | 35.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 64c | 30.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed No | 34c | 29.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 20.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 75c | 20.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.