Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d9b39f0c7cbde9158c818fb1298f08519e8dc4f0970e4c384e22f489f7c9f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 38c | 985.13$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.5 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 295.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 279$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 265.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 243.8$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 198.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 179$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 61c | 170.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 164.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 62c | 162.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 159.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 38c | 141.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 127.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 124.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 109$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 108.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 28c | 99.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 95.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 78c | 82.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 61c | 78.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 78.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 75c | 76.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 71.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 64.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 35c | 59.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 21c | 58.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 75c | 56.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 46.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…b46dbacked No | 61c | 46.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 37.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 37.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 35.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 40c | 35.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…61f9backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 59c | 26.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d2…bc8ebacked No | 66c | 21.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 64c | 20.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…912bbacked No | 68c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 62c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 16.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.