TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,319
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,319 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes29c985.06$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.0540237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes35c956.26$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.356,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes75c600$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.9756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c499.68$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d45…266cbacked No72c375$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052281.8%18 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick75cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes25c362.87$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.724847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c353.21$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.92,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c349.92$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes43c344.76$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.112540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c300.2$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No29c292.82$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.261,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes40c291.64$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.576,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95e5…c974backed No9c284.24$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.752564%16 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes43c168.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c164.4$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.095,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No24c154.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.391,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x376a…d270backed No43c143.65$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.494889.6%43 W · 5 L+14.9wins+0.31per pick59cpaid+78%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No17c132.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.752,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No36c131.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.721,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No67c120$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.434,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No10c111$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.432041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No75c109.07$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5292678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c102.94$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.79,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9096620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3419071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.081,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a57…d90cbacked Yes29c99.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.341050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.172,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No73c94.21$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7642160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No59c93.66$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.057,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c88.34$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.482,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No69c86.84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No69c86.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6697570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed Yes35c84.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5940352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes36c84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.911,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes34c83.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.343,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No39c81.76$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7365353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.972,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c75.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes19c74.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.331,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No70c73$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.984,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84e3…3dfdbacked No69c72.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4614878.4%116 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No71c67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.431,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes76c65.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes27c65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5535325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…8ca0backed Yes79c65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.137969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes39c64.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.125,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes30c63.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes32c62.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed No73c60.02$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0819947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c56.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.485,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No71c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.12,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes77c51.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4418567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No78c51.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2813274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes42c50.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2620341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef65…d64fbacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.519171.7%137 W · 54 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.55444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1321339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes42c49.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2149854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes26c49.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.833,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes22c47.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.611,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes43c46.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No69c46.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.32,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes55c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7527756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No59c44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.042,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes57c43.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x420e…9ad9backed No66c43.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.75560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.640535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes29c39.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No65c36.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6741460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c35.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.468,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ebd…61f9backed Yes29c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed No70c33.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.128543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf67b…da50backed No64c33.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed No72c32.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.187437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No49c29.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.711,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No46c28.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.442,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c6b…33d4backed No63c27.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102055%11 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.522064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No53c23.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No71c21.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.121,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No71c21.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.150261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…3ee3backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21450%7 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.052,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad43…1427backed Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124465.9%29 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x136a…70e8backed No61c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde8a…ce1cbacked No64c19.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.98862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No72c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.372,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No72c18.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.12,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No72c17.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.12,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.424,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.