Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5ef30ea6073e4a4c6865a4c061f58bdae78f10aa07de7568971a2117454b7bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,637$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 1c | 2,856$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,713$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 2c | 808$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 9c | 803.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 14c | 683.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 25c | 606.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 10c | 598.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 77c | 390.72$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed Yes | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 294.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b16…29e2backed Yes | 23c | 270$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 231.9$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 230.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…fb70backed Yes | 5c | 230.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 27c | 219.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 186.29$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 176.52$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 173.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 29c | 172.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 171.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…d340backed Yes | 22c | 141.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 22c | 139.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 27c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 69c | 113$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 18c | 110.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 99.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 96.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 95.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…8f80backed No | 79c | 95.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…66bfbacked Yes | 21c | 90.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…f341backed No | 78c | 87.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 80.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 71.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…d7f7backed Yes | 22c | 66.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 60.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…4929backed Yes | 19c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 26c | 59.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 54.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aed…f5f0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 77c | 44.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 73c | 42.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 39.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 37.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…c7dbbacked No | 74c | 36.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 74c | 28.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 28.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 71c | 27.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 18.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 77c | 17.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…84d0backed No | 73c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 73c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 70c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.