Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8c41217ec067f857391bd6fc75b2d2ef08514a2c54fe63cc5ab04cd3df5560f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,737$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 10c | 2,558$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.45 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,447$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 3c | 1,730$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 7c | 1,179$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 616.7$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 17c | 460.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 13c | 451.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 77c | 416.84$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 392$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 35c | 372.91$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 37c | 369.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.32 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 365.64$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 36c | 340.64$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 340.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 329.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b16…29e2backed Yes | 39c | 305$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 60c | 299.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 283.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 24c | 282.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 63c | 274.93$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 6c | 262.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 31c | 259.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 12c | 255$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 12c | 250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 34c | 238.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…16a0backed Yes | 9c | 235.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed Yes | 36c | 224.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 163.14$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 77c | 160.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 150.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 130.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 64c | 122.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…5ed9backed Yes | 29c | 120.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 15c | 117$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 21c | 105.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 25c | 97.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 66c | 90.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 58c | 88.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 25c | 87.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…682cbacked Yes | 18c | 87.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 84.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 82.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 73.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 73.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 33c | 71.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 63c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 73c | 64.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 50.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…d340backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 37c | 40.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 39.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d8…7e74backed No | 68c | 38.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe610…7ce9backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…b7d7backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 70c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…70fabacked No | 60c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7821…9855backed No | 62c | 16.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.