Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x623ea064a7b22d13077159ac7d1673f60f94c8748b842c13311074793407fd6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 7c | 2,216$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 62c | 1,879$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.45 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 1,812$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.79 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 1,780$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,681$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 49c | 1,083$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.64 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 864.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 682.2$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 593.7$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 582.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 7c | 569.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 550$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 35c | 459.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.85 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 29c | 439.82$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 28c | 433.91$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 430$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 409.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 33c | 369$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.77 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…7e81backed No | 72c | 348.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 28c | 321.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 305.31$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.01 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 45c | 299.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 49c | 295.36$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.15 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 279.56$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 20c | 259.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 255.08$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 249.02$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed No | 64c | 233.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…adaabacked No | 69c | 231.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 11c | 227.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 226.7$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 208.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 207.84$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 29c | 199.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 27c | 196.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…087fbacked No | 78c | 194.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 194.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 190.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 182.27$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…af1abacked No | 66c | 181.61$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +209.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 25c | 179.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 31c | 170.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 159.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 156.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 32c | 148.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 147.14$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 26c | 141.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 74c | 140.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 25c | 129.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 12c | 126.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 51c | 121.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f29…ac2cbacked No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…92d3backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 74c | 106.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…d340backed Yes | 30c | 101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 27c | 100.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 35c | 96.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 93.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 93.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 36c | 93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 91.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 26c | 83.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 81.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…5ed9backed Yes | 62c | 79.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…3db1backed Yes | 38c | 73.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 22c | 70.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 54c | 69.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 72c | 69.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 22c | 67.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 24c | 64.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 39c | 64.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 63.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 61.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 25c | 60.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 59.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.