Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x013dd91620377bf6d5c4be5ca6ca3fbd3f7a610979b6ef525daa076402d62dfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5e7…00a0backed No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 6c | 2,916$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.98 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 38c | 2,875$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,405$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.33 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 7c | 2,285$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.52 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,012$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.28 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 75c | 1,688$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.93 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 63c | 1,630$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.68 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 68c | 1,627$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.66 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 19c | 1,564$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,479$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 4c | 1,236$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 60c | 1,123$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.63 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 1,033$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 62c | 1,027$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.8 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 954.68$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 10c | 899.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.99 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 783.52$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 23c | 781.06$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.36 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 27c | 773.05$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.05 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 32c | 766.3$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.66 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 766.26$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.13 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 36c | 720$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.52 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 36c | 644.04$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.25 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 35c | 595.43$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.08 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…af1abacked Yes | 13c | 583.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +209.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 49c | 567.58$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.52 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 33c | 555.29$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.37 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 75c | 513.44$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.23 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 6c | 494.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 61c | 487.49$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.94 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 471.32$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 46c | 454.54$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 60c | 439.85$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 43c | 419.22$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 5c | 415$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.91 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 410.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.36 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 404.96$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.78 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 48c | 392.63$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.63 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 59c | 392.31$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.05 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 40c | 391.01$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.45 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 41c | 390.27$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.64 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 9c | 369.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.01 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 367.31$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 59c | 325.06$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 18c | 323.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.65 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 307.27$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 306.08$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 304.66$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 76c | 300$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 37c | 300$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…739abacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 284.91$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…10efbacked Yes | 78c | 283.56$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 25c | 276.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 52c | 273.72$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.92 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 272.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 73c | 270.07$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 9c | 266.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.33 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 265.77$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 34c | 255.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.85 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…a0a2backed Yes | 33c | 255.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 250.05$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 69c | 247.84$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 242.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 234.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 79c | 234.65$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 6c | 232.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.52 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 7c | 229.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.82 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 42c | 227.82$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…2c19backed Yes | 58c | 227.36$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 225.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.06 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…5ed9backed Yes | 55c | 224.27$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 36c | 222.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 18c | 222$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 214.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 37c | 211.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 10c | 205.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.69 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 71c | 202.41$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 201.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.12 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 50c | 200.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 6c | 200.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.91 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 17c | 195.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.45 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 184.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 46c | 176.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 174.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 169.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 27c | 166.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.65 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 164.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 162.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…b9bcbacked Yes | 53c | 161.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 14c | 160$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 7c | 149.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed No | 78c | 145.56$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 55c | 141.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 37c | 140.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 8c | 139.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.