TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof PARIVISION, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$317,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,391 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION49c30,489$14,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,828.4254556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team53c24,540$13,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,535.942,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed PARIVISION53c23,689$12,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,511.8533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed BetBoom Team53c8,165$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,865.0996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed BetBoom Team48c7,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,65022643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed PARIVISION31c6,343$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.4814253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked PARIVISION24c6,145$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.3310236.3%37 W · 65 L-10.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked BetBoom Team72c5,481$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.2586949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked PARIVISION25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25013020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION26c4,759$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.445139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked BetBoom Team74c4,759$3,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.43154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked BetBoom Team56c4,194$2,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.2853451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team65c3,768$2,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.621,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed BetBoom Team48c3,119$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.754245.2%19 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed PARIVISION49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47013441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed BetBoom Team49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed BetBoom Team71c2,844$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.1266662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed BetBoom Team67c2,787$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.6745061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed PARIVISION31c2,635$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.2412851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked BetBoom Team58c2,279$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.811,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed PARIVISION38c2,200$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.2880443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed PARIVISION34c2,124$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.9750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed BetBoom Team52c2,100$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.49657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked PARIVISION38c2,008$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.0222842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked BetBoom Team68c2,001$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.7818362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed PARIVISION14c1,963$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.3652243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked PARIVISION11c1,904$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7433845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked BetBoom Team65c1,500$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.738049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed PARIVISION14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21013027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked BetBoom Team63c1,454$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.4244149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION33c1,392$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.652,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked PARIVISION34c1,390$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.3918746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb110…21eabacked BetBoom Team78c1,283$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.167550.7%38 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed BetBoom Team75c1,252$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.859749.5%48 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed BetBoom Team48c1,230$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.760552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed BetBoom Team51c1,200$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59458744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed BetBoom Team72c1,200$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33623650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2969…d6e5backed PARIVISION50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked BetBoom Team67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.239660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed PARIVISION50c1,000$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.1631245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed BetBoom Team58c967.54$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.9751751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked PARIVISION45c886.11$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a75…fc33backed BetBoom Team56c885.92$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.923036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed BetBoom Team48c885.49$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.4525444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55db…8db6backed BetBoom Team68c864.25$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.13360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed BetBoom Team57c859.38$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.66237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed PARIVISION6c750$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed PARIVISION22c711.34$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6856548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1942…2c75backed BetBoom Team56c709.46$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.465339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed BetBoom Team72c699.99$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19635758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked BetBoom Team49c686.03$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.3125549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed PARIVISION41c621.25$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.091,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed PARIVISION51c605$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.5588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed BetBoom Team56c594.64$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.6412661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked BetBoom Team51c589.9$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.93964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed PARIVISION51c586.08$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.957455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION31c576.99$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.341,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed PARIVISION50c573.54$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.516650%33 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION27c544.11$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.391,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed PARIVISION35c528.57$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18533645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed PARIVISION40c508.43$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7260251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed BetBoom Team69c506.55$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5555457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed BetBoom Team77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11545457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x782f…b46abacked BetBoom Team74c474.36$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.355750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed PARIVISION42c473.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked PARIVISION35c471$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8592056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed BetBoom Team55c450$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20133549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed BetBoom Team56c445.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.226453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc327…c72abacked PARIVISION32c434.23$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.511753%62 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed BetBoom Team71c421.25$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2562650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed BetBoom Team73c408.71$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7154753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed BetBoom Team51c401.54$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.918954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed BetBoom Team75c400.05$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0538653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed PARIVISION25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed BetBoom Team75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed BetBoom Team52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19264149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked BetBoom Team75c398.88$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.884452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed BetBoom Team66c382.83$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.019447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ccb…bbd7backed BetBoom Team54c372.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.575837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ac…f6b4backed PARIVISION26c361.37$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.48229.3%24 W · 58 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked PARIVISION20c356.15$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.694252.4%22 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked PARIVISION24c350$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852532%8 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick18cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62c7…d64fbacked PARIVISION40c349.98$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.877225%18 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked PARIVISION45c330.11$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15036654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked PARIVISION44c326.45$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6455157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked BetBoom Team62c325.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0160646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed PARIVISION23c322.61$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.265625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed BetBoom Team52c313.46$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.4672154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed BetBoom Team52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14497142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9028…8af1backed PARIVISION20c299.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed PARIVISION36c299.57$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9161548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed PARIVISION12c291.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0217323.1%40 W · 133 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked BetBoom Team72c276.36$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.383850%19 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1034…b26dbacked BetBoom Team74c270.34$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.347146.5%33 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…fb7bbacked BetBoom Team76c264.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.44168.3%28 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked PARIVISION39c263.17$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0124137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84eb…869dbacked PARIVISION26c257.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.022835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team66c250.61$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.651,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed BetBoom Team74c246.69$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.145048%24 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.