Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf675b1d4e041e9179756c1a88671432e35597321d65fa6f0e89f59ea24fcc5c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 8c | 402.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 73c | 314.81$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 212.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 156.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 152.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 150.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 140.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 22c | 140.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 23c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 73.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 69.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 77c | 57.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 54.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 52.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 52.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 79c | 42.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…60bcbacked No | 72c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 24.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 73c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 72c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6415…e36bbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.