Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4dcf0123fd0a1564c050ddcfc9dfcacdfc25caf5ee54f5ec9c76d867637206e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 80c | 1,176$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.56 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 29c | 426.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 417.34$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 9c | 368.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 346.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 54c | 296.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 77c | 283.57$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.05 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 45c | 260.24$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.33 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 230.49$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 215.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 206.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.37 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 55c | 183.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 41c | 141.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 72c | 136.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 23c | 122.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 77c | 109.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 109.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 22c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 94.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2738…95a0backed Yes | 60c | 91.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 46c | 85.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 54c | 71.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 41c | 66.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 79c | 62.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 59.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 52c | 58.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 54.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…0ed0backed Yes | 64c | 50.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 40c | 48.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 46.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 24c | 45.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 38.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…6606backed No | 78c | 38.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.5wins | -0.59per pick | 75cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 77c | 35.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 68c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 52c | 28.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 48c | 28.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 57c | 28.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 71c | 26.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 25.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 24.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 50c | 22.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 70c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 74c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 77c | 13.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.