Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b2717868e8bd1c2512190b59f221b8ddda9e1afe46ebefa21b8970184789b12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 21c | 528.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 30c | 420.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 322.07$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 29c | 229.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 23c | 198.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 190$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 171$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 154$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 150.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 148$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 36c | 122$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 117$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 44c | 116.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 98.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 87.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 69.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 39c | 68.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 70c | 62.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 60.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 52.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 23c | 49.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 47.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 42c | 45.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 70c | 38.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 30c | 33.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 33.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 31.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 63c | 26.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 24.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 68c | 18.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 72c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.