MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf69eeb18ce2c4ff230d957a9c7d6797f638d512c32cbc083ce6346dcdddf43fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe157…dbffbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 3,890$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Seattle Mariners | 78c | 2,250$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 1,781$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.32 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…9678backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,160$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7301…252fbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 1,133$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa63e…722ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 1,133$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 1,131$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.4 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 823.89$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.06 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 672.77$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.38 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 573.44$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.64 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 506.4$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 505.67$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 500.15$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.82 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 389$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…bb3fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 328.14$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 325$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 301.1$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 248$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 161.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Seattle Mariners | 72c | 153.33$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 143.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…c52cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 130.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 111.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 103.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…e7aabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 67.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0555…55bfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 60.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…c533backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 47.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 46.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 35.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 337 | 50.4%170 W · 167 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Blue Jays vs. MarinersMariners won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.