MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10605784d5c7753095ca955bcaa8bf1bfc4f714c91f18613dd4e4d77bb69108a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 54c | 20,117$10,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,811.98 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 55c | 6,901$3,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,792 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 46c | 4,436$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.9 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Over | 46c | 4,011$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.87 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 55c | 3,418$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.26 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 47c | 2,377$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.97 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.1 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5248…aabbbacked Over | 46c | 1,666$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.09 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,581$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.02 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Under | 53c | 1,538$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 1,445$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.2 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…9678backed Over | 46c | 1,391$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 1,363$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Over | 46c | 1,081$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.61 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa688…c7b8backed Over | 47c | 829.19$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Over | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 45c | 568.57$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.03 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 47c | 442.55$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.55 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c09…9863backed Under | 54c | 370$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…ba0ebacked Over | 46c | 369.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 340.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 45c | 329.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.06 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 47c | 230.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.32 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Under | 54c | 216.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 57c | 194$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…79efbacked Over | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 55c | 190$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 20c | 150$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 42c | 128$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd858…16e4backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…592cbacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…1808backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Under | 67c | 53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…f5debacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…d6d7backed Over | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6c34backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…aa43backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Blue Jays vs. MarinersMariners won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.