Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6f9d3d3a7ca0b0d9b5a1665a2a57344b487db02797a9244969b15066fbc04d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Yes | 26c | 11,363$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 74c | 4,480$3,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.71 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 3,228$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.13 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af4…183cbacked No | 75c | 2,797$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 2,321$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.47 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 19c | 1,770$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.15 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,749$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,237$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 74c | 1,187$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.57 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 800$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 21c | 794.5$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.33 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 725.73$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.95 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 26c | 492.65$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 12c | 408.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 396$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 3c | 380.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 25c | 350$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 21c | 323.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 75c | 285$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 73c | 240$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 75c | 232.78$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 75c | 207.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 8c | 205.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…d0cfbacked Yes | 9c | 196.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 187$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 185.25$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed Yes | 13c | 184.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 15c | 167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 17c | 156.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x545e…e68cbacked Yes | 9c | 151.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…6b8bbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 128.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 117$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 23c | 91.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 25c | 78.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Yes | 27c | 77.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes | 18c | 74.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 75c | 74.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…2766backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 51.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 27c | 48.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 75c | 44.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…d272backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…945cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…6c2ebacked No | 74c | 33.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 74c | 33.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 74c | 29.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 75c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…6c94backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 75cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked No | 76c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.