TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-02?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,678 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fc4…1f41backed Yes54c14,945$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,944.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No24c7,835$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.672,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No46c7,453$3,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,424.9533737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No74c6,581$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,900.35440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No21c6,107$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.641,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes79c5,032$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.653458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes59c3,406$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.523,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb585…53edbacked Yes79c2,732$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-57%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No46c2,003$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.640744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed No21c1,694$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.464043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…9b71backed Yes62c1,238$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No24c1,174$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2834526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed No18c1,088$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.116232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes26c1,058$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.698932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6190…5d90backed Yes53c1,039$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.7955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No74c770.54$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.0428755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Yes55c754.9$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.666355.6%35 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No73c703.97$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.0769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14c2…7d55backed No31c692.84$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.744734%16 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce26…f3e8backed Yes79c506.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No42c460$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1516060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7065…5292backed Yes27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.371154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+77.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fca…819abacked Yes37c332.11$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.112035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35ac…bec2backed Yes63c318.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No73c299.99$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9929855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x353c…01d9backed Yes27c296.3$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.31747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16a…d1e4backed Yes79c267.84$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bc0…d9f4backed Yes79c250.63$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes70c237.72$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6953140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…ef5ebacked Yes27c207.41$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.41862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed Yes76c195.69$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4412141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed No24c179.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.095446.3%25 W · 29 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked No19c165.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.019354.8%51 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.253762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No74c151.75$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7962452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa4…3409backed Yes47c151.06$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.061631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes26c133.83$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8511447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Yes60c133.22$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.639476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5428…e46abacked Yes63c126.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No15c125$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.833259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No21c118.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8848141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes26c115.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3810946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed No74c112.16$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8312271.3%87 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed Yes26c111.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.542025%5 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Yes27c111.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.112429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x089c…4dc4backed No16c109.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.996640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes43c108.33$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2411956.3%67 W · 52 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8010…04e4backed Yes67c107.81$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.235375.5%40 W · 13 L+10.0wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+41.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd09d…b15dbacked Yes47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.381127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+55.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…1639backed Yes27c105.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.164134.1%14 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No58c101.69$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1555058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Yes79c101.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.275246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a16…5f47backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746055%33 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No19c97.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.378844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked No24c91.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6814755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes27c83.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2415048%72 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Yes26c80$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.21741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3db…97a6backed Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9132…6607backed No15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84bd…e6c2backed No74c74.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…238bbacked Yes26c73.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+133.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7487…be81backed Yes26c62.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No48c62.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.077750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bef…1ad5backed Yes80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Yes26c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.44252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067e…625bbacked Yes25c57.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.971643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+38.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Yes80c52.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.556946.4%32 W · 37 L-7.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes43c52.53$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9422669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Yes26c50.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4120251%103 W · 99 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2214642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe479…70dfbacked No22c49.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.652528%7 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Yes52c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.827554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No36c33.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.062060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed No74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.05785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Yes55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e3…6761backed Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.325100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2a…a308backed Yes79c25.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes53c24.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.486850%34 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf864…c210backed Yes79c24.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.11560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d3…84c8backed Yes79c24.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bb6…8cdebacked Yes51c19.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf81e…ab79backed Yes79c18.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94cd…8903backed Yes79c17.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.72757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc942…a8a1backed No75c14.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.08977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.