Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf720f6e028641d7430fa770b37caa84b94927797db91520e91304783fa4bf5a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 2,240$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.8 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 20c | 684.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 23c | 659.44$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.47 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 14c | 622.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 397.97$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 22c | 320.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 318.84$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 290.97$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 284.93$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 281.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 220$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 197.34$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 186.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 68c | 174$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 117.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 102.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 76c | 95.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 84.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 34c | 83.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 29c | 66.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 62.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 60.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 60.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 56.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 55.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 53.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 47.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 45.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 41.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 77c | 41.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 39.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 37.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 35.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 34.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 32.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 32.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 31.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 76c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 20.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 65c | 18.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 72c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 17.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.