Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x241f8ff8d967c64085dcc1b2f62f72729febb3297ab52f311a1a36b32a1f9229
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 41c | 822.46$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.32 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 497.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 3c | 409.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 14c | 363.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.74 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 49c | 250.92$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 34c | 224.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.36 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 213.56$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 14c | 199.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 169.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 169.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 25c | 156$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 135$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 20c | 115.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 19c | 112.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 20c | 103.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 101$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 82.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 81.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 68.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 67.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 62.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 21c | 52.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 21c | 51.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 79c | 50.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 44.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 65c | 40.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 40.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 38.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 58c | 36.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 35.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 35.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…35d0backed No | 57c | 34.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 33.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 30.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 44c | 25.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 25.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 24.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 79c | 20.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 19.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 15.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.