Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7561ca1e3e70945f70d6647a0646632244c6d467a7104f07d219398309ca757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leeds United FCof Manchester United FC, Leeds United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Manchester United FC | 11c | 3,023$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.31 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 1,221$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.97 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 1,140$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…79a8backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 458.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…9c04backed Manchester United FC | 16c | 299.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Manchester United FC | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 161 | 36.6%59 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Manchester United FC | 7c | 201$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -12.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Manchester United FC | 13c | 168.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…997ebacked Manchester United FC | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Manchester United FC | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Manchester United FC | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…08bdbacked Manchester United FC | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Manchester United FC | 12c | 141.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Manchester United FC | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Manchester United FC | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Manchester United FC | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Manchester United FC | 15c | 116$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Manchester United FC | 16c | 102$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Manchester United FC | 16c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 90.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…966dbacked Manchester United FC | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)this page
- Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.