Premier League · resolved market
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4daaf4b7d4b69d75150087dfae51f3d3ba3d17aba939821247cec39d152e1de4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 34c | 6,599$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,232.91 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 6,225$4,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.23 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 4,257$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.98 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 77c | 4,057$3,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.67 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 27c | 3,704$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…f69abacked Over | 13c | 2,529$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.85 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 2,332$1,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.88 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 29c | 1,900$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.99 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 28c | 1,810$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 30c | 1,266$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.93 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 27c | 1,200$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 409 | 53.3%218 W · 191 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 369 | 56.9%210 W · 159 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 27c | 799.67$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.91 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 29c | 537.63$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x396d…2fd2backed Over | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 29c | 507.12$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 229 | 58.1%133 W · 96 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 73c | 401$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Under | 72c | 398.44$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 7c | 297.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 72c | 252.74$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…ef3abacked Over | 7c | 206.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…257ebacked Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 10c | 195$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 27c | 189.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…2272backed Over | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cd…e2abbacked Over | 29c | 172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 31c | 161.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…357dbacked Under | 70c | 142.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…8e4bbacked Over | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 350 | 56.9%199 W · 151 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Under | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 73c | 107.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 69c | 107$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked Under | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Over | 32c | 97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…0c5cbacked Over | 28c | 96.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Over | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 31c | 63.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 290 | 57.9%168 W · 122 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 315 | 57.8%182 W · 133 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 283 | 59.4%168 W · 115 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 321 | 58.6%188 W · 133 L | +18.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…6a9bbacked Under | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Under | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 31c | 57.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 30c | 52.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Over | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Under | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa122…9847backed Under | 73c | 35.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…6451backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Under | 73c | 24.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Under | 76c | 22.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…e70ebacked Under | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Under | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Under | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.