Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79b2a8919cef0441526e181621ffbf36af8564db1d08e892c9f021ab163414a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd34…3baabacked Yes | 1c | 3,050$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,420$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.96 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 52c | 653.48$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.13 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 26c | 521.47$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.42 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 47c | 506$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.35 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 71c | 298.25$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.76 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.41 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…1368backed Yes | 71c | 236.86$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…f46bbacked Yes | 69c | 204.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4086…c7fcbacked Yes | 61c | 160.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 23c | 154.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.75 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 27c | 135.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb45…d6babacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…9518backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 71c | 96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 58c | 91.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 23c | 85.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed Yes | 53c | 72.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 36c | 68.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 59c | 67.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 35c | 58.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 48c | 54.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 66c | 54.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…19cebacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5209…d3ddbacked Yes | 47c | 42.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 53c | 36.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed Yes | 78c | 34.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…5fccbacked Yes | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…3f78backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed Yes | 75c | 22.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 71°F or higher on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61–62°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.