Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe57815731f2b72e4e4d8cf91f3330b383f176cf193407f1acbe159902e306308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 76c | 1,073$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.15 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 11c | 923$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 26c | 882.97$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.29 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 707$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 25c | 699.27$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 632.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4086…c7fcbacked Yes | 31c | 621.48$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.4 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 17c | 556.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 14c | 500.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 26c | 350.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…91e5backed Yes | 21c | 300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 282.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 10c | 256.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…f4c3backed No | 70c | 242.87$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb45…d6babacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 24c | 185.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 78c | 181.19$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 76c | 174.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 22c | 168.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 160.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 54c | 148.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed No | 70c | 143.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 132.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 31c | 117$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 80c | 97.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 18c | 87.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…5fccbacked No | 79c | 62.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2620…7139backed Yes | 20c | 50.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 40.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…3baabacked Yes | 47c | 39.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e89…7f91backed No | 77c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45b…1bf2backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…3780backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…4d67backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…4329backed No | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…e4fcbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 71°F or higher on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61–62°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.