CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Keyd (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7ac633243ac5fb061a9755b3d582e1bd66de5a182d32f87bde81247da16862a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Sharks, Keyd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed Sharks | 78c | 9,967$7,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,181.99 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Keyd | 21c | 3,328$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.85 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…3748backed Keyd | 22c | 2,896$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Keyd | 10c | 2,192$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.88 | 358 | 50.8%182 W · 176 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Keyd | 23c | 2,109$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.88 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Keyd | 21c | 1,552$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.99 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Keyd | 24c | 1,200$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Keyd | 2c | 1,181$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…6b53backed Keyd | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Keyd | 23c | 601.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Keyd | 21c | 596.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.26 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Keyd | 8c | 590$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Keyd | 22c | 578.83$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 447 | 43.8%196 W · 251 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…1cf9backed Keyd | 21c | 490.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sharks | 77c | 390.83$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Sharks | 77c | 380.26$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 970 | 40.7%395 W · 575 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Keyd | 22c | 364$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Keyd | 9c | 295.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 259 | 34%88 W · 171 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Keyd | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 540 | 32.4%175 W · 365 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Keyd | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Keyd | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Keyd | 6c | 197.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 198 | 43.9%87 W · 111 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Keyd | 8c | 191.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Keyd | 10c | 184.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Sharks | 79c | 180.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fd…a851backed Keyd | 22c | 180$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -11.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Sharks | 76c | 163.68$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x291e…4b6abacked Keyd | 26c | 153.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Keyd | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Keyd | 23c | 109.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 56.3%295 W · 229 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Sharks | 77c | 108.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 211 | 39.3%83 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Keyd | 21c | 107.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Keyd | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Keyd | 21c | 88.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Keyd | 16c | 65.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 229 | 31.4%72 W · 157 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Keyd | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Sharks | 80c | 49.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee53…7d97backed Sharks | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Sharks | 79c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4c…e915backed Sharks | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Keyd (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Keyd - Map 1 WinnerSharks won
- Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Keyd - Map 2 WinnerSharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.