MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7be147668155f69abe6e03e11491df17b33603ec3b51e3dbad787fa15f9d019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Reds, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65e4…a3bdbacked Reds | 42c | 46,036$19,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,806.63 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Mets | 58c | 33,429$19,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,399.53 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Mets | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Mets | 59c | 11,566$6,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,824.16 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mets | 8c | 10,704$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.3 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Mets | 58c | 9,440$5,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,475.17 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Reds | 42c | 6,169$2,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,577.91 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Mets | 65c | 5,741$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,749.52 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Mets | 1c | 4,736$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mets | 19c | 4,383$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…9fdabacked Reds | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770 | 313 | 46.6%146 W · 167 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…0a3abacked Mets | 59c | 2,410$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.9 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Mets | 58c | 1,771$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.91 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Mets | 65c | 1,641$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.02 | 384 | 44%169 W · 215 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Reds | 22c | 1,347$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.83 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Reds | 42c | 1,267$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.13 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Reds | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Mets | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 382 | 49.5%189 W · 193 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…570cbacked Mets | 12c | 834.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 439 | 46%202 W · 237 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Mets | 60c | 802.78$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.71 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Reds | 42c | 800$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Reds | 42c | 800$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ea…74bcbacked Mets | 58c | 640.91$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.73 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mets | 57c | 602.47$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.41 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Reds | 40c | 505$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…f8f2backed Reds | 42c | 450$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Mets | 11c | 385.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41e…d27dbacked Mets | 63c | 315$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Mets | 10c | 295$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 2.7%6 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Mets | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…46c8backed Mets | 59c | 255$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Reds | 41c | 244$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Reds | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 563 | 51%287 W · 276 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Mets | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Reds | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Reds | 41c | 199.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…e14cbacked Mets | 59c | 195$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Mets | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Mets | 16c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Reds | 34c | 152.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.94 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…784bbacked Reds | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mets | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Reds | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Mets | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Reds | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 1,289 | 47.2%609 W · 680 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Reds | 42c | 96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Reds | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Reds | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Reds | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Reds | 45c | 59.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Reds | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Mets | 58c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…773dbacked Reds | 41c | 46.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Mets | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…ba10backed Mets | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Mets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440b…d50cbacked Mets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…d8d0backed Mets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…c5fbbacked Mets | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked Reds | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +32.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6724…275cbacked Mets | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Reds | 58c | 28.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…a899backed Reds | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…c166backed Mets | 54c | 27.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…1a90backed Mets | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.