Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7c6eb3525364803efcc0647094f745bacc92a4b4ee41b3430a89c003998dece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,470$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.05 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 1,483$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,451$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.19 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 37c | 1,400$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.01 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 1,359$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 6c | 1,135$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 9c | 1,078$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,050$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…bdcdbacked Yes | 19c | 636.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 39c | 565.85$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.65 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 69c | 503.46$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.88 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…4e67backed Yes | 32c | 359.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Yes | 15c | 340$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 61c | 301.8$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.83 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 281.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 8c | 280.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 270.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 8c | 235$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 25c | 229.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…72cbbacked No | 70c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96b…61afbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 185.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 13c | 166.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…946bbacked No | 69c | 144.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…26a5backed Yes | 27c | 111.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed No | 55c | 109.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0f…72ddbacked Yes | 42c | 107.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 47c | 105.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…6a3ebacked Yes | 27c | 104.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 102.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 48c | 102.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9959…9b03backed Yes | 15c | 100.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…ae45backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…22b9backed No | 67c | 95.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe142…7dc5backed Yes | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e6…d610backed Yes | 46c | 65.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 63.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…a3d5backed Yes | 28c | 53.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 29cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 49.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 72c | 48.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 73c | 47.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d72…faf7backed Yes | 47c | 40.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…5319backed Yes | 32c | 36.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…eda6backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c11…1992backed Yes | 63c | 31.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…500bbacked No | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf893…8e06backed Yes | 54c | 27.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 27.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on January 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 15°F or below on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.