TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,854 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes75c816.95$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.718036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No19c695.5$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8847834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes69c673.92$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.921338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No9c474.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0163323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8376…d286backed No18c427.11$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bec…7e15backed No47c356.94$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.762556%14 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No37c315.17$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8484759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No41c299.37$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0317243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes75c268.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.181050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No33c257.29$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.193,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa007…bb99backed No12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No35c245.47$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.321,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes61c242.63$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.829922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x095c…d20cbacked Yes66c225.97$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.821233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-41.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed No5c221.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.728623.3%20 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa629…fe39backed No38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Yes60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802015%3 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f46…1bbabacked No9c199.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812125.6%31 W · 90 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0986…971cbacked Yes77c181.58$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes63c179.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.616548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes55c177.9$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1515558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes55c169.3$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…946bbacked No60c167.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No25c164.02$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.712251.6%63 W · 59 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07ea…ae45backed Yes64c152.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.043333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes50c146.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3514251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d4…f54ebacked Yes66c131.87$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.371656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x666f…9ddfbacked No41c131.57$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9410726.2%28 W · 79 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7772…ad70backed Yes78c127.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.78955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No39c121.7$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.357,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5490…c716backed Yes50c113.17$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.285154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8986…5631backed No40c111$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4725119.9%50 W · 201 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57dd…72cbbacked No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No25c97.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6749543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87a0…7b9cbacked Yes77c83.19$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.011450%7 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x505f…4519backed Yes62c72.04$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+77.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9c8…f330backed Yes44c70.76$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.85545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x708a…1f12backed Yes73c68.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.76128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-88.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf82…e079backed Yes74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.573844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes56c66.87$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2732352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06b1…f705backed Yes45c65.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.051020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No37c61.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.848,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes46c57.91$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.081,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.62842.9%12 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c56.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x227d…8719backed Yes54c56.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0f…2458backed No45c55.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.14753.2%25 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d65…2061backed No45c55.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.17560%45 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391c…68d1backed No46c55.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.395152.9%27 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a95…23cfbacked No33c51.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.88333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7847…bdcdbacked Yes76c51.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.27944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b63…74aabacked Yes62c48.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.27425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-59.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2834…c196backed No37c45.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No45c44.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.821,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes77c43.03$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.839541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes30c40.95$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6726236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes75c39.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8232147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No32c38.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.592,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x610a…cfd7backed Yes76c36.12$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No29c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.482,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x366f…05f0backed No39c32.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc96…7201backed Yes74c32.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.221346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8ec…40edbacked Yes67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851338.5%5 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick63cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes53c29.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6613946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9921547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f6…de59backed Yes80c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa393…c8debacked No38c27.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.291421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes65c25.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9825549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes51c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3552533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba66…ca3cbacked Yes68c22.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.13944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa90e…154fbacked No51c20.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0384…639bbacked Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57f3…f11dbacked Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf43d…dd08backed Yes77c19.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.541782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes72c18.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.082250%11 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7464…71cfbacked Yes66c17.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.061172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca2…e2bfbacked Yes75c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes69c15.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x277a…3a85backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.634100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+67.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde80…4ce0backed Yes79c15.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.28560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d47…ae69backed Yes80c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.