Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7fda802f87673e7c6aa39f5678b62fe0d10e9e6fc153456566def31729749df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 299.48$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 59c | 273.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 254.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 251.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 213$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 164.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…bac6backed Yes | 15c | 162.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 59c | 157.92$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 157.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 141.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 137.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 77c | 128.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 23c | 128.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 122.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 41c | 110.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 108.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 92.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 81.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 19c | 75.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 78c | 64.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 56.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 51.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 27c | 44.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 43.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 36c | 42.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed Yes | 37c | 38.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 39c | 38.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 36.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 73c | 36.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 35.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 76c | 30.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 68c | 30.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 39c | 28.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 60c | 21.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 76c | 16.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 16.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c16…bb04backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 76c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.