Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x653cd63e9766fb53adff1c7cb99ae02233e02fc9e7a4580d12e4042a4251710d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 762.94$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 293.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 260.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 32c | 231.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.14 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 200.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.49 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 29c | 192.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 189.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 186.86$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 182.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 163.88$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 147.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 127.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 36c | 117.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 17c | 116.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 44c | 114.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 106.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 105.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 32c | 103.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked No | 61c | 102.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 96.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 32c | 94.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 62c | 89.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 88.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 63c | 87.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 71.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 66c | 61.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 57.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 33c | 55.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 54.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 51.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 36c | 46.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 72c | 46.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 46.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 45.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 43.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 43.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…1989backed No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 69c | 38.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 37c | 37.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad30…d3c7backed No | 72c | 34.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…b615backed No | 72c | 34.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 57c | 33.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 31.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 69c | 29.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 24.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 20.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 79c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…df3abacked No | 72c | 16.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 65c | 16.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked No | 68c | 15.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 69c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.