Asian League · resolved market
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-07-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf826e0808eb62a2ac143d2169b10133eb8d1af38cbd8c7c666bf9d2d75e6fae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 5c | 11,459$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.47 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 3,708$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.41 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75c…975cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,467$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 8c | 1,743$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 1,136$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.63 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…6b59backed Yes | 24c | 700$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…fcefbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Yes | 24c | 288.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 77c | 278.36$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 272.3$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…df2ebacked No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 253.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 5c | 229.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 204.7$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 203.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 77c | 133.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 79c | 129$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1034…dc22backed Yes | 24c | 125.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 23c | 76.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 21c | 73.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 22c | 66.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked Yes | 24c | 61.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…720bbacked Yes | 25c | 61.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 78c | 23.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…54aebacked No | 76c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-07-04?this page
- Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-07-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.