Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Houston Cougars (-24.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8670546bf389114e825fe9cdb17eea011af7276c03c1cee5b882d744a08038d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Cougarsof Houston Cougars, Idaho Vandals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,663 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Idaho Vandals | 1c | 9,511$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf11…8399backed Idaho Vandals | 50c | 8,933$4,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,466.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Cougars | 50c | 7,914$3,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,922.12 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Idaho Vandals | 50c | 6,314$3,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,139.3 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Cougars | 50c | 4,389$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.81 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…96a8backed Houston Cougars | 48c | 3,821$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Idaho Vandals | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Idaho Vandals | 52c | 1,055$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.08 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…75ecbacked Houston Cougars | 48c | 1,023$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston Cougars | 47c | 708.32$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.41 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Idaho Vandals | 53c | 545.2$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.96 | 170 | 51.2%87 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Houston Cougars | 50c | 225.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Houston Cougars | 49c | 134.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Houston Cougars | 50c | 95.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Idaho Vandals | 53c | 93.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Houston Cougars | 49c | 88.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…3a5bbacked Houston Cougars | 51c | 58.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Houston Cougars | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Cougars | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Houston Cougars | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Houston Cougars | 51c | 40.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Idaho Vandals | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Idaho Vandals | 51c | 32.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…93b1backed Houston Cougars | 51c | 31.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…e980backed Houston Cougars | 50c | 31.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…8297backed Houston Cougars | 51c | 29.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Cougars (-24.5)this page
- Idaho Vandals vs. Houston CougarsHouston Cougars won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 136.5Under won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 137.5Under won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 138.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Cougars (-23.5)Houston Cougars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.