World Politics · resolved market
Will National Citizen Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf884094ddf88981ddafab93f5fdee20e9e1d5e106acc698fc37e3325b72db9ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5405…0c20backed Yes | 0c | 22,055$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…b266backed Yes | 1c | 15,690$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2238…7fc8backed Yes | 1c | 11,339$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…f0b0backed Yes | 0c | 10,716$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 10,198$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac9…1191backed Yes | 0c | 10,038$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…bf8ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf44a…4cbdbacked Yes | 0c | 9,800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc73…608cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,665$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,728$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 5,312$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b4…6ba4backed Yes | 1c | 4,518$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…69b7backed Yes | 1c | 3,905$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,506$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…6c03backed Yes | 0c | 3,149$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 1c | 3,110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ad…a123backed Yes | 2c | 3,062$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…501cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,927$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…440dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,518$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…a042backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…cd8cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,183$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…357bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,035$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94dc…1300backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…43cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 2c | 916.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…02d1backed Yes | 2c | 827.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 73c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will National Citizen Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?this page
- Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will Gono Odhikar Parishad win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will Islami Andolan Bangladesh win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary Election?No won
- Will Jatiya Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will Workers’ Party of Bangladesh win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.