Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8ccffadf36e4405f5439b22aa582bb97a5fd71811ed8c15834c835b1dc0a413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 1,217$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 691.02$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 580.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 26c | 418.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.45 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 57c | 298.88$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 297.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 9c | 278.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 67c | 268.59$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 258.38$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 250.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 240.75$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 217.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 209.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 6c | 206.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.69 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 9c | 128.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 29c | 123.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 122.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 106.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 15c | 95.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 18c | 85.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 84.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 60c | 80.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 66.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 77c | 65.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 63.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 51c | 61.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 66c | 57.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 55.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 25c | 52.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 36c | 50.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 24c | 44.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 52c | 32.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 63c | 31.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 30.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 29.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 55c | 28.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 73c | 26.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 78c | 22.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 22.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6104…f040backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 54c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.