Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff6f96c14825c7438e1e9db2db94a8abc3d4f3fca060f50c7edb834166554d8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 45c | 680.65$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.19 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 636.23$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.39 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 5c | 495.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 476.7$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 400.65$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 355.27$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 218.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 53c | 193.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 48c | 150.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 33c | 127.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 121.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 50c | 117$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 112.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…eccfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 20c | 99.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 99.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed No | 54c | 91.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 89.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 87.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 83.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 78.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 46c | 68.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 31c | 65.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 61.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 52.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 52.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 25c | 44.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 52c | 41.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 40.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 40.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 37.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 35.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 34.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd52…6c56backed Yes | 38c | 34.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 32.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 34c | 31.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 30.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 29.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed No | 52c | 28.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 57c | 21.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 47c | 21.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf122…d07cbacked Yes | 50c | 21.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 50c | 21.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 52c | 20.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 19.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 52c | 19.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…0b4ebacked No | 52c | 19.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 60c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 63c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.