Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x656db42424b59a38feabbf60c4caf0f5fe3938e4f6f1178be90ca316623549f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 584.14$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.23 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 510.87$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 461.06$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 336.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 39c | 318.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 274.7$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 45c | 257.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 214$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 211.06$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 172.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 158.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 40c | 143.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 63c | 127.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 118.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 58c | 114.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 49c | 92.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 40c | 86.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 84.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 36c | 81.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 70.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 23c | 68.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 68.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 23c | 67.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 61.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 48c | 59.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 59.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 63c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 52.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 74c | 49.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 46.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 46.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 45c | 45.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 45.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 45.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 41c | 43.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 49c | 43.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 40.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 40.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 40.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 57c | 39.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 35.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 76c | 34.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 62c | 31.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 47c | 31.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 43c | 30.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 47c | 29.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 28.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 28.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 44c | 27.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 77c | 25.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 59c | 24.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd559…ff47backed Yes | 58c | 17.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 70c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.