MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8ed057930bc135e6a14107bc83f57c4b61a54cee27cee35c80686b32079f21a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Rays, Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Padres | 48c | 5,589$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,682.72 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 49c | 4,419$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.52 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rays | 50c | 4,233$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,096.19 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Padres | 54c | 3,000$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.13 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Padres | 52c | 3,000$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Padres | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Rays | 48c | 2,431$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.28 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rays | 47c | 2,137$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.28 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Rays | 52c | 2,005$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.35 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Padres | 24c | 1,923$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.03 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rays | 48c | 1,700$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Padres | 53c | 1,457$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.33 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Padres | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rays | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rays | 51c | 468$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.44 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Rays | 48c | 416$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.32 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Padres | 52c | 359.21$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.79 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Rays | 51c | 324.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Rays | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Rays | 47c | 288.77$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.05 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Rays | 51c | 220$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rays | 52c | 210$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Padres | 48c | 206.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Rays | 50c | 203$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Padres | 64c | 172$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Rays | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rays | 51c | 136.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Rays | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Rays | 50c | 100.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rays | 47c | 89.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…179dbacked Padres | 53c | 62.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Padres | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Padres | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Padres | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Rays | 53c | 46.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Padres | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Padres | 52c | 41.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…6014backed Padres | 46c | 34.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Rays | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…b61bbacked Padres | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Padres | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.