Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf90134257bd36cebdf912dbd945c46f77efb2492b237e2abf5651c7db8e04470

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,479 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54ce…9f80backed Yes	17c	3,268$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.41	95	51.6%49 W · 46 L	+6.6wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedba…5454backed Yes	16c	594.68$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.43	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes	20c	504.2$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	659	48.6%320 W · 339 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f81…d38bbacked Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc82…5af0backed Yes	17c	176.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	309	28.8%89 W · 220 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	137	31.4%43 W · 94 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe341…0053backed Yes	15c	166.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b5…6b5fbacked Yes	16c	153.01$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	200	25.5%51 W · 149 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66bb…cd52backed Yes	18c	138.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	331	23.6%78 W · 253 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked Yes	14c	120$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	239	50.2%120 W · 119 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda54…63d4backed Yes	17c	120$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe98d…0adebacked Yes	15c	114$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.38	43	23.3%10 W · 33 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b2b…bedbbacked Yes	18c	113.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa882…e517backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe976…e235backed Yes	19c	57.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x862c…9d40backed Yes	19c	57.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event