Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31903a6baa4a679f1bcabb348d49e700e33c99d85860d1b015e6fe227efa442e

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,775 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2568…ad68backed Yes	4c	7,289$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14eb…2e34backed Yes	4c	2,262$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	274	33.9%93 W · 181 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes	4c	2,056$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab63…8f4bbacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	126	34.9%44 W · 82 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	75c	1,173$877 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.72	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf639…4a74backed Yes	4c	1,136$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6622…c28ebacked Yes	4c	789.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes	27c	749.25$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	659	48.6%320 W · 339 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4869…b7abbacked Yes	4c	727.94$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.3	33	3%1 W · 32 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a9…b216backed Yes	3c	672$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…0968backed Yes	3c	464.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacca…3fb0backed Yes	4c	462.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Yes	4c	454.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	4c	409.74$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	463	19.9%92 W · 371 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	4c	361.51$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ed…efb4backed Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	30	0%0 W · 30 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4652…96febacked Yes	5c	250$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	438	19.2%84 W · 354 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc32…2516backed Yes	42c	118.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x778c…061abacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	82	43.9%36 W · 46 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfedd…cfe4backed Yes	22c	88.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+91.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	15c	85.83$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.14	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf8b3…edefbacked Yes	26c	58.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2682…4997backed Yes	22c	58.04$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.8wins	-0.20per pick	41cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x42b9…8682backed Yes	26c	57.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	99	24.2%24 W · 75 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	73c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No	72c	27.26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.67	190	64.2%122 W · 68 L	+13.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No	74c	14.8$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.78	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event