Fifa International · resolved market
Harry Kane: 5+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05f73850121758269494a7b3c08427acaa74a1fd337d23b7dc89ae5c30112d01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 70c | 1,211$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.31 | 165 | 64.2%106 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…3066backed Yes | 29c | 850.26$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…106cbacked Yes | 30c | 501.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…99a6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 72c | 83.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 657 | 37.4%246 W · 411 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…d4fdbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…0bfebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 74c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 77c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…a0d9backed No | 77c | 23.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harry Kane: 5+ shotsthis page
- Armando González: 1+ goalsNo won
- Armando González: 3+ shotsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ assistsYes won
- Harry Kane: 1+ goalsYes won
- Harry Kane: 1+ shotsYes won
- Harry Kane: 2+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ shotsNo won
- Harry Kane: 3+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 3+ shotsNo won
- Harry Kane: 4+ shotsNo won
- Ivan Toney: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ivan Toney: 3+ shotsNo won
- Julián Quiñones: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Quiñones: 1+ goalsYes won
- Julián Quiñones: 1+ shotsYes won
- Julián Quiñones: 2+ assistsNo won
- Julián Quiñones: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julián Quiñones: 3+ shotsYes won
- Marcus Rashford: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ollie Watkins: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ollie Watkins: 2+ goalsNo won
- Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goalsYes won
- Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assistsNo won
- Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Santiago Giménez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Santiago Giménez: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.