Harry Kane: 1+ assists

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca18a24035b169a85e3526d4db8dc2c2869250b83ed84bde11fd754527834fc9

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,391 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	12c	3,401$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,002.53	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Yes	10c	3,192$319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,873.07	278	20.1%56 W · 222 L	-17.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfae5…0ddcbacked Yes	13c	1,140$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$994	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	37c	1,023$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.1	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7fcd…bf45backed Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$809.09	47	25.5%12 W · 35 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	+5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04c9…f1fabacked Yes	10c	888$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$799.2	97	27.8%27 W · 70 L	+9.0wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	11c	815.55$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$725.55	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7cd…093abacked Yes	11c	588.99$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$523.32	288	22.6%65 W · 223 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No	61c	571.84$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.11	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ed…c681backed Yes	13c	543.99$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$473.71	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+72%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fc…c99bbacked Yes	10c	520$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$468	16	81.3%13 W · 3 L	+5.0wins	+0.31per pick	50cpaid	+99%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	10c	501$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450.9	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No	63c	464.95$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.63	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-46.1wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0dd…cca5backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$404.55	113	23%26 W · 87 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa547…a14abacked Yes	12c	375$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	71c	346$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.85	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes	15c	292$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.31	361	23.5%85 W · 276 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes	11c	276.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.71	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes	11c	272.73$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.73	293	38.2%112 W · 181 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed Yes	11c	272.73$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.73	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	20c	265.23$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.27	802	25.7%206 W · 596 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	38c	253.51$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.97	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e28…f043backed Yes	11c	190.91$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.91	172	44.8%77 W · 95 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x644b…ec38backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.82	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…be19backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.82	323	12.1%39 W · 284 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1a…fea4backed Yes	10c	175$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.5	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	17cpaid	+65.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc757…e5bebacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.67	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65f6…c4a5backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.85	54	37%20 W · 34 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+18%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96fc…2a5ebacked Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.36	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+4.0wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	9c	131$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.21	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	13c	115.38$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.38	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes	11c	113.27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.81	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.8wins	+0.19per pick	25cpaid	+179.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x206c…d936backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	+4.1wins	+0.11per pick	21cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d81…8d1abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ab6…66e3backed Yes	13c	98.93$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.93	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	28cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Harry Kane: 1+ assists

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event