Harry Kane: 3+ shots

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f5f7ff5325f97e32eb8c6790a9213e5165143fbd93a195596fcd7c3d8d3ce15

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,300 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca7c…e994backed No	43c	1,182$508 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$673.84	373	50.1%187 W · 186 L	+45.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+28%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes	64c	756.82$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.27	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked No	36c	672.08$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.29	210	51%107 W · 103 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+19%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc12…f422backed Yes	61c	370$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.8	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08e2…1371backed No	37c	269.98$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.09	34	76.5%26 W · 8 L	+3.4wins	+0.10per pick	66cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed Yes	56c	214.29$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	111	50.5%56 W · 55 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d67…7dacbacked Yes	55c	187.59$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.12	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf3f…7745backed Yes	56c	174.49$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.51	78	50%39 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No	37c	159.88$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.49	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes	63c	158.73$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	179	62.6%112 W · 67 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d82…ea1fbacked Yes	54c	148.42$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	61	36.1%22 W · 39 L	-6.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	24c	128.35$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.17	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	36c	108$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.98	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x941a…1a8fbacked No	43c	105.27$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.27	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4793…a932backed Yes	57c	99.21$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.43	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cef…2c8dbacked No	42c	94.14$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.6	434	60.4%262 W · 172 L	+33.5wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb026…d4fdbacked Yes	60c	84.73$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.47	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-31%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e6d…ed98backed Yes	63c	79.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Yes	57c	78.59$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	142	34.5%49 W · 93 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No	42c	78.41$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.48	158	59.5%94 W · 64 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94ec…1a4bbacked No	45c	68.74$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.11	63	66.7%42 W · 21 L	+12.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x9996…72a8backed Yes	64c	62.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	242	56.6%137 W · 105 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1f…3fd0backed Yes	77c	51.95$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	158	37.3%59 W · 99 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22fa…b0adbacked No	42c	47.62$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.62	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb124…7380backed Yes	65c	46.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	345	37.1%128 W · 217 L	-14.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf256…3767backed Yes	65c	45$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf7…0fb8backed Yes	76c	39.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	143	58.7%84 W · 59 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c6…2d29backed No	39c	35.11$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.42	137	51.1%70 W · 67 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93e9…4d47backed Yes	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	101	65.3%66 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ab…f576backed Yes	63c	31.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5993…d165backed Yes	53c	28.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc1e…f4edbacked Yes	55c	25.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa74…d631backed Yes	64c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	33cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda22…c6e1backed Yes	62c	24.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	83	39.8%33 W · 50 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Harry Kane: 3+ shots

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event