Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-08-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf906509b61e46e83fcb2bf66591ec055e1917abaac7947c9d7995c525d1fbfdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Yes | 2c | 5,678$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 7c | 4,536$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.78 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,199$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.84 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 16c | 632.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 16c | 275.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…fa0ebacked No | 52c | 241.18$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed Yes | 9c | 209.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06f…11f3backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9133…20acbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 57c | 196.1$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 162.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 922 | 35.1%324 W · 598 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 28c | 153.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 256 | 53.5%137 W · 119 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 28c | 133.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dee…30b1backed Yes | 15c | 113.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 25c | 112.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 305 | 48.5%148 W · 157 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 51c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 13c | 96.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 45c | 84.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Yes | 14c | 83.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…f43dbacked Yes | 21c | 66.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 39c | 48.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 242 | 47.9%116 W · 126 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 73c | 42.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 197 | 65.5%129 W · 68 L | +27.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked No | 76c | 42.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed No | 48c | 40.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 24.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 424 | 25.9%110 W · 314 L | -32.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 72c | 22.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…2580backed Yes | 47c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 20.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 52c | 20.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…1cb2backed No | 75c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-08-21?this page
- Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?No won
- Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-08-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.