Asian League · resolved market
Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x926190b48ab04d14d79b1ae7ef41f940b390ebdac915f0e0d203de27ad552348
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 3,454$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.31 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 34c | 692$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.34 | 1,662 | 36.2%602 W · 1,060 L | -34.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…8220backed Yes | 8c | 628.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 589.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 1,464 | 35.6%521 W · 943 L | -33.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked Yes | 20c | 525.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 58c | 385.76$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.64 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…533fbacked No | 80c | 381.06$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 34c | 289.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 905 | 44.9%406 W · 499 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed Yes | 11c | 173.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Yes | 44c | 144.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 9c | 143.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 45c | 143$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 21c | 138.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 22c | 138$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…3102backed Yes | 13c | 110.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 100.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 91.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 69c | 82.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 305 | 48.5%148 W · 157 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked No | 78c | 71.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 43 | 76.7%33 W · 10 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 67c | 53.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 256 | 53.5%137 W · 119 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 72c | 53.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba17…5c67backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 37c | 49.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 79c | 46.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 44.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 935 | 35.2%329 W · 606 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | -16.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 78c | 29.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 201 | 57.2%115 W · 86 L | +15.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…2645backed Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…6600backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 20.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,035 | 41.6%431 W · 604 L | -33.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 55c | 19.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 58c | 19.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?this page
- Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-08-21?Yes won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-08-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.