Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf90d51a5611c9f99f9db1aba71c57a968aba5337538faf12a6f8fbefe2c9a071
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba74…9cdcbacked Yes | 14c | 6,262$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,365$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 3c | 1,359$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,210$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,129$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 5c | 954.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 2c | 870.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4d…5b7bbacked Yes | 16c | 712.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…cca9backed Yes | 4c | 577.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 8c | 466.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 17c | 406.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 12c | 399.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 18c | 393.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 4c | 369$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 321.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 267.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 8c | 240.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 5c | 227.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 11c | 209.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 9c | 202$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…2d1bbacked Yes | 21c | 190.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 156.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 13c | 129.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked No | 80c | 94.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 79c | 81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 77c | 43.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.