Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6f70438008213e56ee9dd3700bc10dbdd49d10404e30bbf7fa1e6785a4ac29e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 10,301$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…3bb3backed Yes | 0c | 6,695$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 26c | 2,392$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.13 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 1,350$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 1,275$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,235$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 75c | 1,200$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,115$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 1,012$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.15 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 12c | 988.1$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 47c | 976.07$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.07 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 782.12$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 42c | 760.87$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 75c | 743.95$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.42 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 701$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 78c | 689.5$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.89 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 16c | 593.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 528.74$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.32 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 468.39$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 31c | 403.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.52 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 62c | 388.95$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.59 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 381.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 40c | 369$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.35 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 79c | 369$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.57 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 74c | 360.69$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…0750backed Yes | 68c | 353.82$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked Yes | 42c | 349.78$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 56c | 317.82$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.65 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 316.09$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 23c | 316$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 59c | 299.16$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 29c | 282.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 68c | 277$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 7c | 271.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 6c | 262.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…cb85backed Yes | 65c | 260.36$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 18c | 258.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.54 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 18c | 250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4c…4070backed Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 23c | 243.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.96 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 45c | 238.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 11c | 235.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 36c | 229.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 68c | 214.7$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 56c | 213.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 30c | 213.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 20c | 206.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 35c | 201$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 29c | 200.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 200.15$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 189.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 58c | 188.95$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 180$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 10c | 175.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 172.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 60c | 169.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 61c | 163.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 41c | 160.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 35c | 157.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…ed1fbacked Yes | 63c | 156.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bd…1ef5backed No | 66c | 151.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 48c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 19c | 138.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 136.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 44c | 129.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 40c | 125.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 55c | 118.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 66c | 114.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 21c | 114.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…0565backed Yes | 36c | 110.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 25c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 42c | 108$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…df24backed Yes | 58c | 107.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed Yes | 38c | 105.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…5231backed Yes | 39c | 102.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 45c | 100.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…e9d8backed No | 34c | 99.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 27c | 99.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…bf75backed No | 22c | 92.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 65c | 90.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…62a0backed Yes | 51c | 89.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 88.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 26c | 85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 83.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 66c | 78.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 55c | 76.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 26c | 76.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…57febacked Yes | 65c | 72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 45c | 69.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 44c | 68.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 49c | 67.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.