Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3080d6d31ab4b41d5281884381aff58e185f9d85d1bbb8910cb832123ad622e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked No | 0c | 13,333$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 3,481$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 64c | 1,498$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.49 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 1,365$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 32c | 1,053$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.63 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 71c | 1,047$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.92 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 1,035$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 10c | 846$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.63 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 557.99$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.26 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 550$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 533$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 26c | 531.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 53c | 531.06$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.89 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 511$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked Yes | 68c | 488.99$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.31 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 4c | 467.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.11 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 35c | 459.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.65 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…cb85backed Yes | 47c | 380.39$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 15c | 370.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.1 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 42c | 369$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.25 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 47c | 350.61$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 25c | 343.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.19 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 321$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 21c | 310.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.68 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…62a0backed Yes | 17c | 307.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 78c | 306.19$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.45 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 270.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…795fbacked No | 11c | 261.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked Yes | 36c | 248.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 240.82$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 57c | 234.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 22c | 233.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 25c | 222.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 7c | 219.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 28c | 213.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 211.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 20c | 204.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.92 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…ed1fbacked Yes | 49c | 199.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 66c | 198.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 12c | 191.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.13 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 6c | 179.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…2d1bbacked Yes | 32c | 175.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 34c | 175.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 160.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 152.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 143$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 14c | 141.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 79c | 131$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 126.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 115.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…bf75backed Yes | 18c | 114.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 65c | 108.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 19c | 108.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…5231backed Yes | 10c | 107.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1faf…ed09backed Yes | 56c | 98.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 35c | 93.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…57febacked Yes | 24c | 92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 49c | 90.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 50c | 89.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…91dbbacked Yes | 15c | 88.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 28c | 87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked Yes | 12c | 86.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 17c | 86.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 45c | 85.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 82.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 13c | 82.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 68c | 79.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 70c | 78.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 71c | 74.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 35c | 72.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 33c | 71.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 37c | 68.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 42c | 67.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…65e9backed Yes | 46c | 65.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 40c | 62.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 61.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bc…37d1backed Yes | 63c | 59.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 34c | 56.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 41c | 53.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 38c | 52.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 35c | 50.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 30c | 50.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…b3c1backed Yes | 25c | 44.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +297.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 46c | 43.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 46c | 43.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 64c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 49c | 40.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 40.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.