Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d1f18a95f0c46e45ee8934ce2345a9aa3eac8ab46ade6b35ac5bd2b58b5553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,414$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 5c | 2,106$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,444$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,219$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.03 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 3c | 951.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 4c | 862.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 611.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 3c | 461.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 441.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 417.78$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.87 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…cca9backed Yes | 5c | 322.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 33c | 300.04$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 58c | 247.55$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.87 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 227.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 30c | 226.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed Yes | 11c | 223.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 11c | 221.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 15c | 219.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…e9d8backed Yes | 13c | 199.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 16c | 180.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 42c | 169.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 80c | 163.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 12c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…97f0backed Yes | 7c | 157.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 20c | 155.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…eeaebacked Yes | 35c | 148.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 140.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 9c | 129.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fa…4d11backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 10c | 106.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…0565backed Yes | 47c | 105.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 37c | 101.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed Yes | 15c | 98.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 15c | 96.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 56c | 88.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 36c | 83.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 74c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 65.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 45c | 52.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 51.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 58c | 50.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 39c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 28c | 49.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 42c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 76c | 48.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 48.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked No | 59c | 35.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 57c | 32.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 39c | 29.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 40c | 26.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 57c | 22.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 60c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 18.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 71c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.