Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfebb6e7064fd15cc8a366cd1716718beb6c802cf8d91c28d9ad7800fc9b341ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 6,790$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,303$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…75afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,026$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked Yes | 2c | 923.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 3c | 867.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 4c | 846.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f8…dfbbbacked Yes | 6c | 593.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 4c | 499.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 2c | 490.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…97f0backed Yes | 6c | 452.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 8c | 417.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 366.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7599…4293backed Yes | 5c | 354.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 17c | 312.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 278$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 6c | 266$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 8c | 256.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 8c | 249.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 6c | 240.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 11c | 234.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 7c | 225.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 5c | 210.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 9c | 209.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 205.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Yes | 12c | 171.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 27c | 163.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…df24backed Yes | 10c | 163.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 10c | 135.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 28c | 130.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 10c | 123.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 117.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…5624backed Yes | 12c | 108.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 10c | 104.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 28c | 101.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 95.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 62.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 55.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked No | 73c | 41.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 78c | 13.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.