Earnings · resolved market
Will Moody's (MCO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf920b784f65e25fec2be40f223a25ce8090b35821f4a5242babcd8b3b102f8ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 20c | 1,392$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.91 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked Yes | 76c | 262.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed Yes | 80c | 239.51$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513e…b09cbacked No | 24c | 209.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 7c | 193.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 189.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 79c | 180$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 11c | 172.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 21c | 163.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…7622backed No | 15c | 155.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 133.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…754cbacked Yes | 77c | 129.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 111.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…7372backed No | 19c | 103.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…8443backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 17c | 99.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 17c | 96.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 16c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 23c | 73.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…935fbacked No | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 74c | 67.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 23c | 64.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…a0abbacked No | 21c | 56.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…f2b8backed Yes | 79c | 56.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20f…fcaabacked No | 19c | 53.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…f78ebacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…b465backed No | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0319backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…b9bcbacked Yes | 80c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe861…ecb0backed Yes | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…a516backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…46a0backed Yes | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44db…e66fbacked Yes | 79c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…68dfbacked Yes | 80c | 13.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.